Dollar Cost Averaging Calculator
Compare dollar cost averaging (DCA) vs lump sum investing. This calculator uses Monte Carlo simulation to show expected outcomes, win rates, and how much DCA reduces your risk compared to investing all at once.
Investment Parameters
Lump Sum
Average ending value
Dollar Cost Averaging
Average ending value
Key Insight
Lump sum investing wins more often because markets tend to go up over time. However, DCA reduces your risk by 41% (lower volatility of outcomes).
Detailed Comparison (1,000 Simulations)
| Metric | Lump Sum | DCA | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Outcome | $129,151 | $124,995 | $4,156 |
| Median Outcome | $127,033 | $123,974 | $3,059 |
| Best Case (90th %ile) | $163,880 | $144,916 | $18,964 |
| Worst Case (10th %ile) | $97,616 | $106,355 | -$8,739 |
| Volatility (Std Dev) | $26,040 | $15,298 | -41% risk |
Outcome Distribution
Recommendation
If you can handle volatility: Lump sum investing has historically outperformed DCA about 2/3 of the time because markets tend to rise.
If you prefer lower risk: DCA reduces the chance of investing right before a downturn and provides psychological comfort.
Best of both worlds: Consider investing 50% immediately and DCA the rest over 6-12 months.
Understanding DCA vs Lump Sum
What is Dollar Cost Averaging?
DCA means investing a fixed amount at regular intervals regardless of price. You buy more shares when prices are low and fewer when prices are high, potentially lowering your average cost per share.
Why Lump Sum Often Wins
Markets go up more often than down. By investing immediately, your money has more time in the market. Studies show lump sum beats DCA about 2/3 of the time over 12-month periods.
When DCA Makes Sense
DCA is valuable when: (1) you're investing from income over time anyway, (2) you'd otherwise keep money in cash due to fear, or (3) you're investing in highly volatile assets.
The Psychology Factor
The best strategy is one you'll actually follow. If lump sum investing would cause you to panic and sell during a downturn, DCA's lower volatility may lead to better real-world results.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is dollar cost averaging (DCA)?
Dollar cost averaging is an investment strategy where you invest a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of market conditions. This approach means you buy more shares when prices are low and fewer when prices are high, potentially lowering your average cost per share over time.
Is lump sum or DCA better?
Research shows that lump sum investing outperforms DCA about 2/3 of the timebecause markets tend to rise over time. However, DCA:
- Reduces the volatility of outcomes
- Protects against investing right before a crash
- May be psychologically easier to implement
- Is what most people do anyway (investing from paychecks)
How often should I invest with DCA?
Common frequencies:
- Monthly: Most common, easy to automate
- Bi-weekly: Matches many paycheck schedules
- Weekly: Slightly more time in market, more complexity
The difference between frequencies is usually small. Choose what's most convenient.
When does DCA make the most sense?
- When you're investing from income over time (401k contributions)
- When you'd otherwise keep money in cash due to market fear
- When investing a large windfall that feels risky to deploy all at once
- In highly volatile markets or assets